In the corona pandemic, a group of scientists at the Technical University of Berlin (TU) expects a fourth wave based on modeling, which is also not overtaking hospitals. “Based on our simulations, the number of hospitals will start to grow exponentially in October. If the current development continues, it will start even earlier and intensify again in October, ”says the new report from the group led by mobility researcher Kai Nagel at the Federal Ministry of Education and Research.
The team estimates that the increase in incidence over seven days that was recently recorded as “worrying” due to the high relative increases. Only if the Delta vaccines work significantly better than what is currently known or if a 95 percent vaccination rate is achieved that a fourth wave in the simulations will not appear. The model shows “under all currently realistic conditions, a fourth wave in adults, which will intensify with the relocation of activities indoors in the fall”.
According to the report, simulations for schools show that ventilation systems and the widespread use of rapid tests and / or PCR could reduce the dynamics of the infection. If such measures were implemented consistently, school closures or work-study courses would not be necessary. The two rapid tests per week, which are currently typical, are however by no means sufficient without additional measures.
According to the model, if schools were opened after the summer vacation without protective measures, there would be a wave of infections among schoolchildren, which would lead to a wave among adults.
Scientists around the world are working on Covid 19 simulations using different approaches. These are based on certain assumptions and are subject to uncertainties. The team around Professor Nagel uses anonymized Berlin cell phone data to model the infection process. According to him, the results can at least be transferred to other big cities.
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