Get ready for the 3rd wave of Covid and 500,000 dead by July – May 22nd, 2021 – Marcelo Leite

Systoles and diastoles: Just as the heart contracts and relaxes to pump blood, the Covid epidemic also follows a pulsating rhythm that is determined by the degree of social distance. In the absence of sufficient vaccines to ensure collective immunity, d. H.

In Brazil, due to the federal error of you-know-who, the first dose of immunizers barely reached a fifth of the population. Under these conditions, health units see few patients depressed by the corona when state and local authorities tighten mobility restrictions.

At the next pulse, with the umpteenth relaxation of restrictive measures, base units, emergency rooms and intensive care units fill up again. Beds fill up, intubation supplies are running out, lack of oxygen, more and more deaths. We have already seen this film.

The recurrence of the hospital collapse is as predictable as the heartbeat in this difficult-to-treat patient named Brazil. The analogy stops here because systoles and diastoles follow each other in a split second, while the ebb and flow of cases and deaths in the epidemic progresses with a delay of three to four weeks.

The interval separating the increase in the number of infections from the increase in the number of deaths corresponds to the time at which the disease progresses in the symptomatically infected. Several days pass among more people who get into the circulatory system, become infected with the virus, develop symptoms, are hospitalized, and need intensive care. Once intubated in the intensive care unit, it takes just as long for 80% to succumb.

Returning to the analogy, throughout life, the heart wears out to beat 100,000 times every 24 hours, 36 million per year, decade after decade and a day later; However, the social fatigue with the coming and going of Covid manifests itself much faster.

We didn’t even get out of the second cycle, and it was exhausted enough for the population, governors and mayors, to lower their guard a little (imperfectly, too). No one can stand the lack of friends, respect, relatives, popularity, peace, resources, vaccines, jobs, tranquilizers, income, solidarity, beds, decency …

“Lockdown” has become a cursed word, a mortal sin, thanks to the genocidal efforts of Jair Bolsonaro. His political opponents flee from Providence like the cross separating from the devil. We never did anything like the General Lock.

After so much neglect in providing vaccines, bulk testing and segregating infected screenings would be the only measure that can sustainably lower burial curves.

In the absence of anything, it becomes easy to foresee another surge in deaths in a few weeks. Such an omen may seem irresponsible as the death toll drops, but even children know that seawater recedes before everything plunges into the tsunami.

There should be no room for relief when nearly 2,000 Brazilians die every day. In addition, the number of infected people has stopped falling in several places and has risen again. The number of intensive care units in most states and capital cities exceeds an alarming 80%.

Here is the riskiest prognosis for a journalist: in a few weeks a third and fatal wave will arrive. Brazil will hit the shocking death toll of half a million in mid-June or shortly thereafter.

Write it down and collect the column when the time comes. In this case, nothing is more satisfying than making mistakes.

However, much prayer is recommended for those who believe in God. Almost nothing can be expected from people with or without decision-making powers.

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